Friday, October 9, 2009

Understanding the Wildcat

Jeff has mentioned Chris Brown from Smart Football... and holy smokes, is that guy smart.  I like to think I know a bit about football, but this guy... it's almost SCARY what he knows.

He has an unbelievable breakdown of the Wildcat offense for a New York Times blog (see... told you he was smart.  You HAVE to be smart to blog for the NYT), what it is, what it isn't, and how to defend it.  You should read it right now.  I am not kidding... GO!

Big Ten Picks Week 6

Jer had a great post yesterday on how Purdue makes him nervous. Both of us were pretty confident on the podcast Wednesday night by picking Minnesota to win by 10+. Yet Jer reversed coarse yesterday, and after doing some more research, I'm doing the same. I said the Gophs would win 31-17, which would be a comfortable win if it worked out that way. But the more I've read up on Purdue, the more I believe they really are better than their 1-4 record indicates. They lost week two to Oregon by 2 points, the same Oregon team that beat California 175-3 (ok it was only 42-3 but still), which was the same California team that the week before beat the Gophers 35-21. They gave Notre Dame a free timeout and Jimmy Clausen and the dangerous Notre Dame offense two shots at the end zone instead of one. On the second chance, Clausen got the game-winner. The Northern Illinois loss was sloppy, but what REALLY makes me nervous is the loss to Northwestern last week.

On paper, it's a 27-21 loss at home to the Purple Smart Kids which, as we've said all year, you just don't do in the Big Ten if you have serious bowl aspirations. Why does that worry me? Because the final score doesn't come close to telling the whole story. Did you know Purdue scored touchdowns on their three opening drives? They were up 21-3 in the first quarter, and only one of those TD's came on a short field off a turnover. They were legitamately leading the Wildcats early in the game and should have ran away with this one.

Except they couldn't hang onto the ball. They coughed up it up six times- five of them fumbles. Interceptions can be controlled. Generally good teams- and good QB's- don't throw a lot of picks. Bad teams always seem to have the QB that makes some dumb throws that gets them killed. But fumbles are random. Sure, one player could have a fumbling problem, but when four different guys put it on the turf in a game? The Rivalry, Esq interviewied Chris from the website Smart Football, and as you might expect, the guy is really smart. He's also a Purdue fan, and he had a good and long take on what happened to the Boilermakers against Northwestern, and why I'm now more nervous about the game Saturday: basically, after jumping out to a 21-3 lead, Purdue got smacked with a heavy dose of fumble-itis, or you could argue, a rash of bad luck. If they don't commit even one of those random fumbles, they probably win, but if you turn it over 6 times, chances are you aren't going to beat anybody, even the Purple Smart Kids.

So I'm taking back my 31-17 prediction, and thinking more like a 27-24 final victory for the Gophs. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see Minnesota come out swinging for Homecoming and take Purdue out behind the woodshed, but I think this one is close the whole way through.

Miami OH @ Northwestern (11am Big Ten Network)
Jer and I sometimes like to play the game "What Would You Rather?" with the comparison being "watching a WNBA game" versus, well...just about anything. Honestly, we have a difficult time coming up with anything- and I mean ANYTHING- that I would rather NOT do than watch a WNBA game. Cleaning the gutters, stabbing myself with a dull butter knife, listening to man-haters like Ani Defranco or watching Desparate Housewives are things that I really hate doing- yet I would do all of them if given the choice between that or watching a WNBA game. Yet the prospect of having to endure Miami of Ohio at Northwestern is the first sporting event I can think of that actually gives me pause...ok so I'd still rather see this than the WNBA, but just the fact I have to think about it at all tells you how bad this game could be. I think Northwestern wins but really, I don't care who wins as long as I don't have to watch it.
PICK: NORTHWESTERN

Eastern Illinois @ #14 Penn State (11am ESPN Classic)
Jer says a lot of funny things, but my favorite joke he's had of late, on the podcast or anywhere, was the one about this game: "I didn't know Glen Mason was in charge of scheduling games for Penn State." See? Very funny. And very true. If I wasn't such a Big Ten homer, I wouldn't even have Penn State in my top 25 because of their absolutely embarrassing non-conference schedule which, as Jer said, is as bad as anything Glen Mason put together when he was here at Minnesota. The Nittany Lions have destroyed four terrible teams, and then got embarrassed against the one real opponent they played (the dirty, dirty Hawkeyes). The JoePas could run out 22 kids from their student section and they'd win this game.
PICK: PENN STATE

Michigan State @ Illinois (11am Big Ten Network)
Trap game! Trap game! Trap game! Michigan State is coming off a very emotional season-saving win over arch-rival Michigan, and now they travel to Champaign to knock off a left-for-dead Illinois team that has been awful. Wait, what's worse than awful? Gawd-awful? Horrifically awful? Oakland Raiders-awful? Pick one, that's been Illinois thus far. But you know what? I'm picking the upset. I am. It will probably go down as my worst pick of the season (well, besides picking Illinois to go 11-1 and for Juice Williams to be the conference offensive player of the year), but this is a total letdown game for the Spartans while the Illini will rally around new QB Eddie McGee. Expect a shoot-out and for Illinois to pull the upset.
PICK: ILLINOIS

Indiana @ Virginia (2:3opm ESPN 360)
Hang on, let me flip a coin...heads. Um, which team was head again? Ok best of three...two...three. As a Big Ten homer I'll pick the Hoosiers because...um...Virginia is awful at protecting the QB and Indiana has a good pass rush? And also because the flip of a coin said so.
PICK: INDIANA

Wisconsin @ #9 Ohio State (2:30pm ABC)
John Clay, Scott Tolzien, and the Badger offense- meet the best defense you'll see all year. This one is going to be a defensive "slobberknocker" (I love that word. Tell me a word that's more fun to say. Go ahead, I dare you) like last year's 20-17 Buckeye win was. I think Ohio State's defense is good enough to make Tolzien beat them throwing the ball, and against that defense and in front of that crowd, I don't think he's good enough to do it. We might also see Jim Tressell finally let Terrelle Pryor loose on a defense that's not equipped to handle his running. I also hope we see Badger safety Jay Valai knock out two more Buckeye players. This should be one of the best Big Ten games of 2009.
PICK: OHIO STATE

Michigan @ #12 Iowa (7:05pm ABC)
Explain to me again how this is the primetime ABC game over Badgers/Buckeyes? Maybe ABC is just conceding that football fans outside of Iowa and Ann Arbor will be watching Florida/LSU over on CBS instead, so you might as well grab two large, passionate fan bases. For the game itself, I just don't trust a freshman QB on the road against that defense. As I said last week in predicting a Michigan loss to State- Forcier is good, but he's still just a freshman, and I think the Hawkeye D beats him up pretty good. When Iowa has the ball it's not going to be pretty, but they'll find a way to get it done. Close game and a Hawkeye win. Let me know how it goes, as I'll be watching the Gators and the Bayou Bengals.
PICK: IOWA

Thursday, October 8, 2009

5 Reasons Purdue makes me nervous.

 Last night Jeffrick and I recorded our weekly podcast, and we both said in that podcast that we expect the Gophers to win their homecoming tilt with Purdue by 10 points.  The Gophers are favored by 3 1/2.  And while I was pretty confident in my prediction of this game, after I started looking at some of the Purdue stats earlier today, I'm not quite as confident.  Close, but not quite.

In the words of Pat McCurdy...
Here are the things that make me nervous
Here are the things that stick in my craw
Here are the things that make me nervous...
Nervous!

Please tell me if I'm wrong.

"Dee Snider... makes me nervous"...
1. Joey Elliott: Joey Elliott might be the same person as Joe Elliott, the lead singer of Def Leppard, and I made my case for it over at The Rivalry, Esq.  And Joe Elliott is no Dee Snider... or is Dee Snider no Joe Elliott?  In any case, it's the closest thing I could come up with in the song.

Adam Rittenberg had a post today checking in on the Big Ten QB's.  Elliott is averaging over 250 yards/game, and again, as I mentioned earlier today, part of this has been out of necessity because the Boilers have been playing from behind most of the season.  But, as Rittenberg pointed out, Elliott is leading the Big Ten in Passing Average, Total Passing Yards, Points Responsible For, and Total Offense.

The Gopher defense is good, and has the chance to be VERY good... slowing down Elliott would be a good step toward very.

"Magicians... make me nervous"...
2. Ralph Bolden: Okay, he's not quite magic, but he's good.  He is 2nd in the conference in rushing yards and yards/game (which I guess makes sense).  Bolden gets the ball just under 20 times/game.  The Gophers haven't been great at stopping the run this year (10th in the conference) and allowing Bolden to go off would be a real problem, and might keep our defense on the field more than we'd like.  Even though our defense is used to bailing out our offense, this isn't a good thing.

"Parades... make me nervous"...
3.  Homecoming: This is supposed to be an advantage for us, and in a lot of ways it is.  There is excitement, activities, alumni, etc.  But some of those things can also be a distraction... for players and fans.  I was told that at The Bank against Wisconsin, the fans trickled in after kickoff, and that some of the student section never filled.  With all of the activities of the homecoming week, and after coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Wisky, the students will again be prone to late arrival. 

Maybe the players don't care about this, but it could certainly affect the atmosphere.

 "The alphabet... makes me nervous"...
4. 10/17/2009 @ Penn State, 2:30 Central kick-off, National Television: This one's a reach... the alphabet?  The game is on ABC?  Get it?  Oh well.

In the words of Billy Joel, "you may be right, I may be crazy, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for."  Call me crazy, but is it possible that the Gophers could be looking past Purdue?  I'm not saying they are or aren't, but I am saying that they can't afford to.  Every single game this team plays for the rest of the season needs to be treated like the Rose Bowl.  We need every win we can get, and they will be hard to come by.

"Mimes... make me nervous"...
5.  O-Line: This should probably be #1.  In fact, I could write this post every single week, before every single game, and this could/should/would always be my biggest nervous factor.  Run blocking... it's a problem.  Pass protection... it's a problem.  Injuries... yeah, that's a problem now too.  Jeff Tow-Arnett is out for the season with a broken leg.  It hurts losing your center.  Jeff Wills has looked mediocre at best this year, despite very high expectations.  Matt Carufel, he of the Notre Dame pedigree, has also not been superb, and Chris Bunders has been penalty prone, perhaps costing the Gophers a touchdown from the 1 yard line last week against Wisconsin. 

I could go on-and-on about balance, and getting the run going, and protecting your quarterback, and keeping your defense off the field, and how all of these things revolve around the offensive line... but I will spare you and say what we've pretty much been saying for the last 13 months... it needs to get better.

... those are the things that make me nervous
those are the things that drive me cra-zy.
those are the things that make me nervous
I'm so nervous
I'm so nervous!

New Podcast

A new podcast is posted!  Jeff and I continue to stomp on sour grapes as we express our disappointment with our performance against Wisconsin, we look around the Big Ten, and we preview Purdue. 

As always, SKI-U-MAH!

Getting to know Purdue

We all know that Purdue comes to the The Bank on Saturday as our Homecoming opponent, and we all know that football teams are supposed to beat whoever they play on homecoming.  Purdue is 1-4 with their 4 losses coming in their last 4 games.

But they have lost those 4 games by a combined 18 points, and 3 of those losses came against BCS opponents (Oregon by 2, Notre Dame by 3, NWestern by 6).  I doubt I'm the first person to say that this is the best 1-4 football team in the country.  I fully expect them to be the best 1-5 football team in the country after playing our Gophers this weekend, so let's take a look at how that might happen.

We know this: Purdue can score.

Points per game:
Boilers: 30.2
Gophers: 25.4

It also may be worth noting that those 30.2 pts/game are nearly all offensive points, no defensive points, and one special teams touchdown, whereas the Gophers 25.4 pts/game include two defensive touchdowns this season.

Offensive points per game:
Boilers: 29
Gophers: 23

It appears that the story of this game will likely come down to the Boilers offense vs. the Gophers defense.
So here are some head-to-head stats of this match-up to get your mind going heading into this game:


Boilers yards/game: 411.8
Gophers yards allowed/game: 377

Boilers Passing yards/game: 258.2 (3rd in Big Ten)
Gophers Passing defensive (Yds allowed/game): 202.4 (4th in Big Ten)

Boilers Rushing yards/game: 153.6
Gophers Rush defense (Yds allowed /game): 174.6 (10th in Big Ten)




Purdue individual stats:
QB Joey Elliott...
Passing yards: 1276 yds, 255 yds/game (both 1st in Big Ten)
Passing TD: 10 (1st in Big Ten)
Interceptions: 7 (tied for most in Big Ten)








RB Ralph Bolden
Rushing yards: 541 yds, 108.2 yds/game (both 2nd in Big Ten)
Yards/carry: 5.6
Rushing TD's: 4
Rushing attempts: 97 (2nd most in Big Ten)



Purdue has played from behind most of the season, so the passing yards could be a bit skewed because of that.  Nevertheless, it is a concern.  Ralph Bolden is also a concern, especially considering the fact that he's put up the kind of numbers that he has while playing from behind most of the year.

Another good test for our defense, but I expect our defense to rise to the challenge.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

GFB TOP 25: Week 6

Much less craziness nationally last weekend, and therefore much less movement in the polls. The top eight stays the same, but with monster games on the slate this week including Florida vs. LSU, Bama vs. Ole Miss, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin and Penn State vs. power Eastern Illinois there's big changes coming. As always, here's the polls that count.

GFB Top 25: Week 6

1. Alabama (5-0)
2. Florida (4-0)
3. Texas (4-0)
4. LSU (5-0)
5. Virginia Tech (4-1)
6. USC (4-1)
7. Ohio State (4-1)
8. Cincinnati (5-0)
9. Iowa (5-0)
10. Miami (3-1)
11. TCU (4-0)
12. BYU (4-1)
13. Boise State (5-0)
14. Kansas (4-0)
15. Auburn (5-0)
16. Oklahoma State (3-1)
17. Oregon (4-1)
18. Penn State (4-1)
19. South Carolina (4-1)
20. Oklahoma (2-2)
21. Nebraska (3-1)
22. Georgia Tech (4-1)
23. Ole Miss (3-1)
24. Georgia (3-2)
25. Wisconsin (5-0)

Dropped Out: 9. Houston (4-1) 20. Michigan (4-1) 24. California (3-2)

1-10:
The top eight remain the same, but if LSU pulls the upset this weekend, we could have a new #1. Iowa moves up after winning a letdown game against Ark State, and Miami jumps way back up after an impressive performance against Oklahoma. All of this makes me more and more impressed with Va Tech, and if they run the table to this point and Texas somehow loses, we could and perhaps should see the Hokies against the SEC champ in the Title game.

11-13:
Houston drops out completely after getting blasted. TCU and BYU remain above Boise State because the MWC conference is for real while the WAC is not. Honestly, when your best competition for your conference title could come from the Idaho Vandals, that does not speak well of your conference. This will be as high as Boise gets the rest of the year even if they win every game 100-0.

14-19:
Kansas hasn't played anybody but has been impressive doing it, and I finally put Auburn into the rankings. They were definitely overdue, and a good win over a solid D like Tennessee is proof they're going to be able to move the ball on just about anybody. Of course with Bama, LSU AND Ole Miss still to come, we'll find out plenty about the Tigers. The next four one-loss teams? I really have no idea, other than I like them here and in this order.

Oklahoma:
The Sooners have played the toughest non-conference schedule in the country, and to survive at 2-2 without Heisman winner Sam Bradford and the best TE in the country in Jermaine Gresham is good enough for me to keep them in the top 20. If they can get Bradford back soon, they could still knock off Texas in a couple of weeks and win the Big 12.

21-25:
I dropped Ole Miss behind the Huskers and Jackets because their resumes are simply better. Georgia does not fall out of my top 25 because they've played one of the toughest schedules to date thus far. Eveybody outside of the top 10 would be VERY fortunate to be 3-2 after having to play five BCS conference opponents, three of whom are ranked (and if Arkansas' defense can get it together, they could be headed for a top 25 spot too!).

Monday, October 5, 2009

How many feet do we have to shoot?

First of all, absolutely fantastic take by Jeff on this game... as usual he is spot on. 

The final score of this game was 31-28, but in no way is that score indicative of the true story of this game. 

Before I dig into some numbers, let me be very clear about something... I am STILL not that impressed with Wisconsin.  This was a very beatable team, but the Gophers didn't do anything to help themselves win this game.  Once again we were in the game in-spite of our offense, not because of them.  Bret Bielema should be sending a thank you card to Coach Brewster and the Gophers for this one.

Like Jeff, I agree that the conservative play-calling in the second half was a huge disservice to the level of talent that this team has.  Where was the creativity and aggressiveness that we saw the last two weeks?  Not only was it a disservice to the offensive talent, but it was also a huge disservice to a defensive unit that has kept the offense in games all year.  The offense's inability to do... well, ANYTHING in the second half lead to this stat...

Game Time of Possesion:
Wisconsin: 34:41
Minnesota: 25:19

Wait, it gets worse...
2nd Half Time of Possesion:
Wisconsin: 20:05
Minnesota: 8:55



Let that sink in for a moment... and consider this: our defense spent over 2/3 of the second half on the field. 

In the second half Wisconsin had 5 drives... EVERY one of them was over 3 minutes, and one of them was over 6 minutes.  The Gophers also had 5 drives... only one of them was over 3 minutes, and the rest were all under 2 minutes.

Let's talk about shooting ourselves in the foot shall we?

Opening kick-off: Stoudemirre returns the ball to about mid-field... oops, wait, holding penalty.  -10 yards

Opening drive: 2nd & 19, Duane Bennett rushes for 20 yards and another Golden Gopher FIRST DOW... oops, fumble... Wisconsin capitalizes with a TD.

Our first drive of the 2nd Quarter: 2nd & 10: penalty, -5 yards.  We then run on 2nd & Long, throw on 3rd & Long, and then punt.

8 minutes left in the half, game tied 10-10:  the offense puts together a great, time-consuming drive all the way down to Wisky's 1 yard line!  It's 1st & Goal from the 1 yard line... oops, penalty, an illegal block for 15 yards.  Instead of getting a TD on this drive, we settle for a FG. 

(We're running out of feet here.)

Last drive of the second half.  We had just made Wisky go 3 & Out.  We get the ball back deep in our own territory, but with 1:13 left on the clock, and 3 timeouts.  We also have the most dangerous receiver in the Big Ten on our side of the ball... HERE WE GO!!!  Oooops... instead of using those timeouts, let's just go into halftime happy to be winning by 3.  I cannot believe this decision.  Who is coaching this team, Denny Green?  Glen Mason? INEXPLICABLE!!! 

(Now look, I'm not saying we would have scored a TD on that drive, or that we would have scored at all, anything is possible... but consider this fact: if not for the penalty that killed the prior drive, and if not for curling up into the fetal position on the last drive before halftime, the Gophers had a very legitimate shot at going into the locker room at halftime of this game up 24-10 on our biggest rival.  Instead, 13-10.)

Wisconsin gets the ball to start the 2nd half... FUMBLE!!!   Time for the Gophs to capitalize!!!  3rd & 2 from Wisky's 18 yard line... oops, penalty. 3rd & 12 from Wisky's 28.  Weber's going to throw... interception.  Superb.

(At this point I could use some whiskey, but I was already three deep on the Schell's Amber, so switching to the diesel would have been a poor choice. )

Oh, by the way, our penalties: 9 of them, for 75 yards.  Additionally one could argue (if one wanted to bother and if one was given enough pain-go-bye-bye-juice), that these penalties cost us two touchdowns.

I've already told you what happened the rest of the second half as John Clay made the worn-out Gopher defense his Charlie Biatch... except for the play when Bielema decided to pull Clay and instead just have Zach Brown hand us the ball.  Thanks for that false sense of hope Bret!  And I thought I couldn't hate you any more than I already did.

Last week I was interviewed by Bucky's 5th Quarter as part of their weekly internet radio hour.  The question was posed to me: What scares you the most about Wisconsin?  My answer: the Badgers running game. 

While this answer was slightly prophetic, my answer perhaps should have been something like: Nothing about Wisconsin scares me nearly as much as the Gophers uncannily great aim at their own feet scares me.

Playing Not to Lose...Again.

Saturday's loss made me sick to my stomach. After playing so well and getting SO CLOSE we lost to the hated Badgers of Wisconsin again. Our defense was incredibly good but just got worn down after being on the field so much while our offense, which was opportunistic in the first half, suddenly lost productivity and creativity in the second half as the Badgers crept back in and slowly and methodically won the game.

What made this loss hurt even worse was when I went back and looked at last year's game, a similar three point loss to Wisconsin 35-32, and realized it was almost exactly the same game. Seriously, it played out almost exactly the same way! What did head coach Tim Brewster learn from a three point loss to the Badgers where you had a halftime lead and instead of going for the jugular and playing to win you played not to lose and lost? Apparently nothing.

Look, the offense was putrid in the second half and the play-calling of Jed Fisch was conservative and predictable, but this loss falls squarely at the feet of Brewter because he was there last year for the three point loss to Wisconsin, while so many of his coordinators, including Fisch were not. For the second straight year Brewster had the ball and a lead with two minutes to go in the first half against Wisconsin and two years in a row he got scared, went conservative by playing not to lose, and ended up losing the game. All of this from the program's biggest cheerleader and most positive supporter, who everyday all day just wants to tell you how much he loves his kids and how great they are and how awesome this football team is. Yet when the chips are down, that confidence in his kids seems to vanish, and the man starts playing not to lose. It makes all of his pep talks and positivity ring pretty hollow and shallow.

You can chalk up last year's loss to Wisconsin to inexperience and learn from it. The Gophers were without their two best offensive players in Eric Decker and Duane Bennett and had looked awful in the two games leading up to the trip to Camp Randall. I was expecting the worst, yet the Gophs stormed out of the gate, the defense caused some turnovers, the offense capitalized and there they were with a surprising first half lead of 21-7. Scroll down to the bottom of this play-by-play chart from last year's game, and see if this sounds familiar: after forcing a Badger turnover the Gophers have the ball with 2:13 left at their own 21 with two timeouts. The Gophers had played really well to this point, as the defense had forced three turnovers and the offense had done a good job of moving the ball. Here, up two scores on the road with a young team, Brewster decided to sit on the lead with four straight rushes for Eskridge (which actually got them out to the 50), but instead of calling timeouts to give them a chance to drive further for a field goal, Brew lets the clock run out.

I HATED the call at the time and still do, but at least I sort of understand it. You've played well and don't want to risk the entire game being turned around by a pick or fumble (you have to wonder if he had the Northwestern game from that year on his mind. The Gophers were tied late with the ball in their own end, and Brewster decided to try and march down field for a field goal instead of play for overtime. Of course, as we all unfortunately remember, Weber got picked off and it returned for the winning touchdown. You have to wonder if Brewster is still beating himself up for that one, even if I think it was a good call to put faith in your kids and your offense to play to win instead of playing not to lose). Still, by playing not to lose there, it seems like that message and that attitude permiated the team and the Gophers choked away the lead in the second half. It was almost like they were told "You're lucky to be here and we're lucky to have a lead. My gawd, don't blow this! Whatever you do, don't screw this up!!" and of course that's exactly what happened.

In the first half of that game the Gopher D forced three turnovers and had held the Badgers to just 137 yards of offense. In the second half Wisconsin went on the offensive, chewing up the clock and tiring out the Gophers D with three long scoring drives to tie the game at 24. The Gophers, in full "play not to lose" mode, fumble the ensuing kickoff and get tackled for a safety giving Sconnie a lead they wouldn't relinquish. The Gophers would continue playing not to lose, which resulted in another safety, to which the Gophers responded with a false start penalty, two rushes and a fumble at their own 11, which the Badgers then walked in for another TD to make it 35-24. Then, FINALLY, with 6:59 left and down 11, the Gophers started playing to win. They scored on an 11 play 60 yard drive, forced a 3-and-out, and then had a chance to tie or win the game with 2:35 left on their own 22. Weber would eventually get picked and the Badgers would run out the clock, but it wasn't until it was almost too late that Coach Brewster finally got out of Play Not To Lose mode.

Fine. Tough loss with a young and banged up team. File that one away for another time, and hopefully learn about not playing to lose.

Flash forward to Saturday. Gophers and Badgers, this time at home with 18 starters back from last year's squad. You're holding a first half lead of 13-10. Your defense is playing just as well as they did in the first half of last year, only your offense hasn't been as good, with three trips to the red zone but only one TD. Still, your offense has been moving the ball, and you've shown creativtiy with some Wildcat formations that have worked pretty well and keep the Badgers guessing. You have the ball on your own 13 with 1:15 to play and two timeouts. Last year, on the road with a bigger lead and a team that was playing better, you decided to Play Not To Lose. Surely this year, AT HOME, with a more experienced group and an offense that includes the most productive receiver in the country and three year starting QB, you'd learn from your mistake and go for the points right? RIGHT?

Four. Eskridge. Runs (with one short Weber incompletion thrown in). The clock runs out and you sit on your lead at halftime. Again.

I think you know what happens in the second half. If you saw the game from 2008, you know exactly what happens. The Badgers come out smelling blood, the Gophers Play Not To Lose, and Brewster blows another one. EXACTLY THE SAME WAY HE DID THE YEAR BEFORE!!!!! It'd be maddening enough to watch that game knowing this was the first time Brewster had gotten scared and told his coordinators and his kids to Play Not To Lose. But for it to happen again, to the same team in almost the exact same situation, is inexcusable. I understand the risks of being aggressive and playing to win, but when you play not to lose, you usually end up losing.

And to make things worse, they didn't even wake up and start playing to win before it was too late. The only reason they woke up is because the defense did it for them. In the second half, the first three Gopher offensive possessions totaled 12 plays for 11 yards, resulting in a pick and two punts. With about six minutes remaining in the ball game (again just like last year) the Gopher defense came to the rescue. Eric Small forced a fumble on Zach Brown (speaking of coaching blunders, what the hell was Brown doing in the game? John Clay was destroying the Gopher defense for the entire second half, and what does Bret Bielma do? Puts in Brown for reasons only he knows, and Brown ends up fumbling. Unreal. Thanks for that one Bret!), which Marcus Sherels scooped up and ran to the house. Weber completes a nice two-point conversion to Da'Jon McKnight and suddenly it's a three point game again.

Unfortunately the Gopher defense, which up to that point had been on the field for almost 10 of the last 12 minutes of game time, had nothing left to give. Bielma made up for his Brown Blunder and did what any smart coach would do: told his offensive coordinator to be aggressive and finish off an exhausted defense, which is exactly what Badger o-coordinator Paul Crist did, orchestrating an 8 play 74 yard drive that chewed up another four minutes. Sure, six of those eight plays were runs, so you could say that Wisconsin got conservative and tried to protect a lead, right?

Wrong. Crist had the call of the day, and maybe the year. After four plays (two run, two pass), Montee Ball runs for one yard. Ball out, Clay in (who to this point had run for about 937 yards in the half), and everyone in the building expects a run for Clay. Crist instead calls for a naked bootleg, as Tolzien fakes the handoff to Clay to the right and rolls to his left- and there's NOBODY there!! He runs for 47 yards down the Gophers 5, and two plays later Clay punches it in for a 10 point lead and the game. Instead of going conservative, Crist and Gophers take a risk and get a huge reward.

To finish up, just like last year the Gophers get offensive too little too late, as Weber completes two beauties deep over the middle to Decker for 40 yards (only his second catch- and the second pass thrown to him of the half!!!!) and tto Tow-Arnett for 38 yards (his only catch of the game). Bennett punches it in and it's 31-28. Stop me if you've heard this, but like last year the D gets the ball back, but out of timeouts and too little too late the Badgers force a turnover to end the game.

Sunday-Friday Tim Brewster loves his offense. Loves its versatility, its talent, and its creativity. He can't shut up about it. But on Saturdays, when it really matters, Brewster shuts up his offense by playing conservative and plays not to lose. And for the second straight year to the same team in the same situation in the same fashion Brewster's lack of confidence in his offense resulted in a loss in a game they could have won. Play to win from Sunday-Friday, but play not to lose on Saturday. Apparently this is the Tim Brewster Way.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Big Ten Picks Week 5

I had perhaps my most embarrassing work moment ever yesterday. Well wait let me think...yeah there's been a few over the years, but I think this one tops it. It wasn't anything bad enough to get fired for, but it was certainly enough for the co-workers (and my wife once I told her. And her friends one she told them. Ahh marriage) to make fun of me.

Yesterday morning in the Twin Cities we had a monsoon. 20-30 mph winds coupled with heavy rain that was coming down sideways. I have a pair of linen khaki pants that I got this summer that I absolutely love since they look work appropriate and yet are super comfortable. This is my first item of linen clothing I've ever owned, so I wasn't aware of what would happen should they get soaking wet. So I wore them to work. I park my car about a 10 minute walk away from my building, and I grabbed a trusty umbrella thinking this would keep me plenty dry.

Wrong. First I'm too tall for normal umbrellas to keep me dry (I will be heading to IKEA this weekend to get a $4 golf umbrella) and second it was raining sideways so it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. By the time I got to work the front of my pants were completely soaked. That was bad enough yet things got exponentially worse when I got into the office and said hi to my co-workers. They looked at my pants and laughed. Puzzled I looked down...and noticed you could clearly see my boxers through my pants. Like clearly. Like inappropriately clearly.

In horror I got to my desk as fast as I could and remained there for the next 90 minutes with my legs as far under my desk as they would go until my pants dried. Thankfully they did and the boss didn't see me, but needless to say I was horrified and embarrassed. It wasn't until my wife had called to console/make fun of me that she mentioned it probably wasn't a good idea to wear linen after Labor Day. Um gee thanks honey. Thanks for telling me that AFTER I had worn them to work today!

If you ever wondered how big of an idiot I am, well, wonder no more. Yet thankfully I've lived to tell about it, and could even show my face at work today. Maybe it's to make myself feel better, or maybe because it's true, but I'm sensing a similar theme of embarrassment and redemption among many of the Big Ten teams so far. When I went down the list it seems like every team's had an embarrassing moment in the first four weeks and yet have lived, or will live to tell about it...

#22 Michigan @ Michigan State (11am Big Ten Network)
Michigan
Embarrassing Moment: The whole "Sunday Work-Out Gate" story before the season started
Living to Tell About It: Rich Rod has gone from the hot seat to the catbird seat as he's started 4-0, including a win over everybody's least favorite school Notre Dame.

Michigan State
EM: pick one- losing AT HOME to a team called the Chippewas, gift-wrapping a win for Notre Dame with a dropped INT and a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE INT, or getting outplayed by Wisconsin. You choose.
LTTAI: Beating hated rival Michigan at home this Saturday. And that's probably about it for this year.
PICK: MICHIGAN STATE


Northwestern @ Purdue (11am Big Ten Network)
Northwestern
EM: It's either their non-conference schedule, or that they lost a non-conference game already. I can't decide.
LTTAI: Um, that the player's will at least get a great education? That they go to school in an awesome city like Chicago? I don't see any on-field redemption coming unless you count possibly beating Indiana, Miami of Ohio or Illinois, but even none of those are givens.

Purdue
EM: Head coach Danny Hope, up four with 36 seconds left, apparently feels as charitable as Michigan State did the week before, as he calls a timeout to allow Notre Dame (who was out of timeouts) the time to run two plays, the last of which they scored the winning touchdown on. Pop Warner coaches don't make that mistake, Danny.
LTTAI: Like Indiana, they were picked by everyone (including yours truly) to be one of the two worst teams in the Big 10, but they have a very real shot of a bowl game this year. And it starts with a win Saturday.
PICK: PURDUE


Arkansas State @ #13 Iowa (11:05am ESPN2)
Iowa
EM: Iowa needing not one but two blocked field goals in the final seconds to defeat a 1-AA team in their opener.
LTTAI: In the three games since they've looked like the best team in the Big Ten (After having to type that I will now remove my fingernails with a staple remover. I HATE IOWA!!!!).
PICK: IOWA


#15 Penn State @ Illinois (2:30pm ABC)
Penn State
EM: Their Northwestern-like non-conference schedule- and then when they finally play a real team they get dumped at night at home against Iowa.
LTTAI: That they can't possibly play that badly again. Or can they? Not this week anyway.

Illinois
EM: basically their entire season so far.
LTTAI: Um...only nine more games until the season is over? Juice Williams will be gone next year and Eddie McGee will be your quarterback? The Zooker will reel in another strong recruiting class (who cares if he can only recruit but not coach? We're focusing on the positives here!!)
PICK: PENN STATE

#9 Ohio State @ Indiana (6:00pm Big Ten Network)
Ohio State
EM: Losing to USC. Again.
LTTAI: Posting back-to-back shutouts since then. And that they still have an awesome defense and some guy named Pryor at QB. They're still the best bet to win the conference, just hope they don't meet USC in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana
EM: Survived an awful opener against 1-AA Eastern Kentucky with a 19-13 "non-loss" (I refuse to call that a win)
LTTAI: Won their next two, and despite a loss at Michigan last week, they only lost by three and looked really good doing it (or did Michigan look really bad? Discuss, discuss...). I had them pegged as the worst team in the conference to start the season, but with the way they've played and with how wide open the conference looks, a bowl game is a real possibility.
PICK: OHIO STATE


Wisconsin @ Minnesota (11am ESPN)
Wisconsin
EM: It was either the choice of Bret Bielma as successor to Barry Alvarez, or it was Bielma, and the rest of this team, popping off about how much TCF Bank stadium sucks and won't be a factor and will be no big deal. Also how much he doesn't like the Gophs' new yellow unis.
LTTAI: Eating his words on Saturday. Oh wait, that's not redemptive at all.

Minnesota
EM: A Minnesota player was seen swinging a 2X4 at college kids during a brawl last weekend- and he didn't get suspended for it (by the way, after this one- and the suspensions of two Gopher players to start the week- I will officially shut up about Iowa's off-the-field incidents compared to ours).
LTTAI: Beating hated rival Wisconsin this Saturday in front of a packed, loud and maroon-and-gold clad crowd while hopefully wearing the new yellow unis!
PICK: GO GOPHERS! SKI!U!MAH!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Gopher O-Line, MarQueis & Tolzien are Keys to the Game

Happy October. We're enjoying a monsoon here in Minneapolis to start the month, and hopefully this crap clears up for Saturday. If you haven't listened to the pod yet 1) shame on you and 2) shame on you. Listen to the pod and you can hear our preview of the game, but let's expound on it further here.

On paper the Badgers look like the better team, or at least like they'll have a better chance of winning. Yes, they haven't played as tough a schedule as the Gophers, and no, I don't think Wisconsin would have beaten California either, but Bucky just looks like a more complete team through four weeks. Their defense has gotten better every week (or has it? Hmmmm), and while the secondary remains a question mark, they were good enough to beat two good taems in Michigan State and Fresno State. Offensively their running game is coming together and we expect John Clay to continue to pile up the carries and the yards in tradional Wisconsin fashion (they ran 50 times last week in the win over the Spartans).

The surprise so far for the Badgers has undoubtedly been the play of junior quarterback Scott Tolzien, who was a distant third on the depth chart heading into the spring of 2009, yet played so well in practice he was named the starter for opening day. All he's done in his first four games is complete 66.7% of his passes for 884 yards, 8 TD's and a Big Ten-leading 164.3 QB rating.

He's been really, really impressive with one major caveat- he's done it all at home. This is going to be Tolzien's first ever start on the road, and while Wisconsin fans (including the boys at Bucky's Fifth Quarter) will tell you that TCF Bank won't be a factor because "it's no Camp Randall and it's only 50,000 people" I can't wait for Gopher fans to prove them wrong. The Bank WILL be a factor Saturday, and it's going to be loud when Wisky has the ball. I really, really hope Bielma and the rest of the Badgers continue to talk and think and believe the new home field's not going to be a factor and it's not going to bother them at all. Please, by all means, keep thinking that. I cannot wait for the first time Tolzien's going to be faced with a big third down and the place will be going nuts to the point he can't hear and he's going to think "Holy *%&! I didn't expect this!!" TCF Bank stadium is certainly no Camp Randall, but it's much better than the Metrodome and a sea of 50,000 Maroon and Gold fans is going to be MUCH louder than the Badgers are going to expect.

How Tolzien handles the noise and a real road atmosphere is the key for the Badgers offense. They're going to run, and run a lot, but whether Tolzien can make the Gophers pay for bringing defenders up to stop the run is going to be the difference. He certainly has weapons in receivers Isaac Anderson and Nick Toon, and the best tight end in the conference in Garrett Graham. But it all comes down to Tolzien. If the Gophers can stop the run then Tolzien's not good enough to beat them by himself. And if they can get pressure on him and rattle him a bit early, then even better.

For the Gophers, the more I've read and studied, the less worried I am about this game. Maybe I'm putting too much stock in last year's close loss, but think about this: with a VERY similar team to last year (we have 18 starters back from that squad), a team that for that game was missing Eric Decker, Duane Bennett and Kevin Whaley, the Gophers led 21-7 at the half and were in it until the very end. Both teams are improved from that time, but I really like our chances. For one, the defense is going to be improved from last year, as well as last week. The secondary was awful but I know that the players are going to be ticked off and the coaches are going to fix whatever coverage problems they had against Northwestern. Losing Cedric McKinley to suspension is a big, big loss but in a rivalry game where the Gophers are underdogs AT HOME and are having to hear all week about good Wisconsin is and how little of a factor the new stadium is going to be, they're going to be really fired up.

Offensively, I laugh at the Wisconsin people who are saying "Michigan State and Minnesota have similar offenses, and since we stopped the Spartans last week we'll stop the Gophers." First off, Michigan State racked up 486 yards of total offense. Three weeks ago Fresno State put up 468. You can argue all you want about how the Michigan State game was pretty much over and they got some cheap yards at the end of the game, but 391 yards passing is a lot no matter when they get it.

I've also heard and read Badger blogs claiming they're going to stop Decker because they stopped Blair White last week. Really? You're going to look at the first four games and say White is even in the same solar system as Decker has been? White's a nice college receiver, but he hasn't been the focal point of every defense he's played so far. He's not in Decker's class. Not even close. For the first four games defenses have been geared to stop Decker and yet he still gets his catches, yards, and touchdowns. He has 12 more catches and 150 more yards than White, and all of this while Decker has played against better competition and against defenses focused on stopping him. The Badgers secondary is certainly no better than Northwestern's, and is definitely no better than Cal's, and if Decker can wrack up catches against them then he's going to do it against Wisconsin too. So I have zero worries there.

As for the running game well...ok yeah, I'm worried. They got back on track and looked like a real offense with Bennett and Kevin Whaley gashing Northwestern on the ground last week, but I'm not sold on Northwestern's front seven being any good. At least not yet. I'm hoping it's an improvement and that we'll see them continue to pick up yards and first downs rushing because as much as I like the matchup of Decker vs. the Wisconsin secondary we cannot beat Wisconsin, or anyone else for that matter, as a one-dimensional passing offense. Establishing the run is going to be the key to a Gophers victory Saturday, and I don't care what the configuration is on the offensive line and who's starting, but those five and the tight ends HAVE to move the Badgers off the line and open some holes for the Gophs running backs and The Man Crush MarQueis Gray.

Oh yeah, about Mr. Gray- he's going to be unleashed. You're going to witness the Gopher's wildcat formation go from all run to a dangerous passing option. Expect Gray to run the ball a few times early, then when the time is right and Wisconsin brings the safties up, look for him to fake a hand off, drop back, and fire a ball downfield, most likely to a wide open Brandon Green. I was critical of the coaching staff the first two weeks for the lack of creativity, but after watching them open up the playbook and their bag of tricks against Cal, the vanilla offense the first two games was obviously by design. Last week against Northwestern we saw even more of Gray, but they still didn't let him throw. Again, I believe this is by design.

In the biggest game of the year for the Gophers (the winner of this game has an inside track to a coveted top four finish and a New Year's Day bowl) at home against the hated Badgers, a fired up crowd dominated by maroon and gold is going to witness the coming out party for one MarQueis Gray- that is, if the offensive line gives him, and the rest of the backfield, the chance. If they do, and the Gopher rush can get to Tolzien, I'm loving the Gopher "upset" on Saturday.