A Way, WAY Too Early 2010 Big Ten Preview

As we wait for Jed Fisch's departure to become officially official, and now that the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft has passed, we might as well take a gander at how the Big Ten will look for the 2010 season. After the way the conference finished up the bowl season, I can tell you the Big Ten looks strong- very strong. There's at least one legit national title contender that should start the season ranked in the national preseason top five- and maybe even top three- two more in the top ten, a fourth in the top 12-15, and perhaps even a fifth that lands somewhere in the top 25.

2010 really could be the Season of the Big Ten, and should improve upon the seven teams we sent bowling in 2009. The league should only be better at the top, but much deeper, as 10 of the 11 teams have legit hopes of going to a bowl game. We'll go in reverse order of how I see them finishing. This, of course, is not only subject to change, but WILL change once recruiting is finalized next month, we get a look at spring ball, and the Gophers have players that either don't qualify academically or get arrested. Oh for the days when we used to be able to make those jokes about Iowa...those days, by the way, were this time last year.

(By the way, check out this fantastic schedule chart from BigTen.org I will be looking at that rougly 1,000 times between now and the end of next season)

11. Indiana Hoosiers (2009 record: 4-8 Big Ten: 1-7)Returning: 8 starters on offense, 4 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-Conference: Towson, C. Michigan, and two more cupcakes yet to be named
Who They Miss in the Big Ten: Michigan St and Minnesota
Big Ten roadies: Ohio St, Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue. And they play a "home" game against Penn St. in DC.
Reason(s) for Hope:
The Hoosiers return just about everybody from a productive offense, including their top running back and a really good receiving tandem of Tandon Doss and Demarlo Belcher.
***UPDATE***As John M so astutely pointed out, Indiana QB Ben Chappell is not gone. Not at all. In fact, he's nly a junior, he'll be back for his senior season in 2010. OK suddenly things are looking better and better for IU.
Reason(s) for Concern:
Pretty much all of their defensive starters who were sorta kinda good from a defense that was definitely not. Also, this is Indiana, where we never expect them to do much.
Outlook:
Bill Lynch will be coaching for his job, and if he gets the Hoosiers to a bowl, he should not only keep it, but be the Big Ten coach of the year. IU SHOULD be able to win their four non-con's considering they're all crap, but as usual they'll find a way to get blown out by Virigina or someone like them.
After John's reminder that Chappell returns, the Hoosiers look a lot more intriguing. If they can find a way to stop people, and just figure out how to finish games- remember they had leads on Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa last year before losing them all- IU could make some noise in 2010.

10. Illinois Fightin' Illini (2009 record: 3-9 Big Ten: 2-6)
Returning: 5 on offense, 4 on Defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: Mizzou, N. Illinois, S.Ill, @ Fresno St
B10 Miss: Iowa AND Wisconsin. Seriously.
Roadies: Penn St, Michigan St, Michigan

Reason(s) for Hope:
Juice Williams is gone. Never thought I'd say that as a positive, but the offense seemed to run just as well or better without the erractic but talented Juice. The Illini return two solid QB options, and The Zooker went out and got some coordinators who will play to their strengths as passers instead of the read option spread. The Illini, who had a top 30 rushing offense, should continue to move the ball well on the ground, as they return all of their tailbacks. The Zooker is coaching for his job, and unlike last year, there's zero expectations for the Illini, so they could be dangerous flying under the radar.
Reason(s) for Concern:
Well The Zooker is still coaching. They have no real proven receivers returning, and seven starters leave a defense that had a lot of trouble stopping anybody.
Outlook:
The schedule isn't exactly easy, as Missouri and Fresno St are quality non-con opponents and traveling to Happy Valley, East Lansing, and Ann Arbor are never fun, but considering the schedule gods somehow have them skipping the Hawks and Bucky Badger- two preseason top 10 teams!!!!- AND have somehow have five Big Ten home game s?!?! The Zooker can't ask for anything more to keep his job. The favorable schedule + a roster stocked with talent + zero expectations outside of Champaign mean the Illini could be a dangerous team in 2010.

9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2009 record: 6-7 Big Ten: 3-5)
Returning: 9 on offense, 2 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: Middle Tennessee, USD, USC, N. Illinois
Big-Ten Miss: Indiana and Michigan
Roadies: Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan St, Illinois

Reason(s) for Hope:
There's a lot of returning experience at quarterback and receiver, and hopefully the new OC can get to them and use them better than Fisch did. A trio of talented freshmen running backs should push the incumbents, and let's hope another offseason, and more recruits, make the o-line functional and useful. Certainly the running game couldn't get any worse...right? Defensively, there's a lot of young talent returning.
Reason(s) for Concern:
Nine of eleven starters return for an offense that was awful. Was it the coordinator or the players? We'll find out soon enough. The running game couldn't get any worse- except we thought that each of the last two seasons and look what happened. Yep, it got worse. As mentioned, there's talent and speed returning defensively, but so much of it is inexperienced. Sam Maresh's progression at middle linebacker will be a major key. So will keeping him and everyone else on the team out of handcuffs.
Outlook:
You could make a strong case for ranking Minnesota higher than this, but an equally strong case for dropping them lower, so I'll start them here at ninth. This is it for Tim Brewster, and he can't use the schedule as an excuse. He should win three of four Non-con's, and three of four Big Ten roadies are winnable. The home slate? Holy Christmas, it's brutal, but at least it's at home: USC, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa. Yikes. But if you want to be a consisten winner, you have to win some of those. Bettering the six regular season wins from last year looks really difficult, as does just equaling that total.

8. Michigan Wolverines (2009 record: 1-7 Big Ten: 5-7)
Returning: 7 on offense, 8 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-Con: UConn, @ND, UMass, Bowling Green
B10 Miss: Minnesota, Northwestern
Roadies: Indiana, Penn St, Purdue, Ohio St

Reason(s) for Hope:
Seven starters back on offense, including soph QB's Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. Uber-frosh Devin Gardner couldn't enroll early, which could be a blessing in disguise. It'll give him a redshirt and put him two full seasons behind the two sophs, making him more than ready to take over in a few years. Forcier handled things incredibly well for a true freshman, and should be improved in his second season running the offense. A ton of young talent back on offense, and most everybody back on defense.

***UPDATE***
Rittenberg blogged late yesterday afternoon that Gardner has gotten into school early after all. He was able to enroll a week and a half after the semester started, and will be eligible for spring practice. The Wolverines QB battle just got a whole lot more interesting. I'd still chalk that up as positive, as whoever wins that battle will have to be very, very good.

Reason(s) for Concern:
An awful defense lost it's by far its two best important players when juniors Brandon Graham (DE) and Donovan Warren (CB) left early for the draft. They leave a lot of experience behind, but seemingly very little talent. When do you ever think you'd hear that said about a Michigan defense? The schedule also does them no favors with roadies to Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State- and Purdue won't be a picnic this year either.
Outlook:So what's the magic number for RichRod to keep his job? Eight wins? Nine? Certainly no less than that. He's always had a dynamic offense everywhere else he's been and he looks loaded with young talent, especially at the skill positions, so an explosion in points and production can be expected. But can the Wolverines stop anybody? They'll be a better team and WILL be bowl eligible, but I have a hard time finding eight wins on this schedule.

7. Northwestern Wildcats (2009 record: 8-5 Big Ten: 5-3)
Returning: 7 on offense, 6 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: @ Vandy, Ill. St, @ Rice, C. Michigan
B10 miss: Michigan and Ohio State
Roadies: Minnesota, Indiana, Penn St, Illinois

Reason(s) for Hope:
Pat Fitzgerald is the most underrated coach in the conference and maybe the country. With three straight seasons with at least six wins, even a pessimist like me has to start believing in Fitz and what this program can do. Four of five o-linemen starters return, which always helps, and while they lose some defensive talent, because of so many injuries last season on that side of the ball, they have guys coming back with starting experience. Oh, and their schedule is cup-cake city as usual.
Reason(s) for Concern:
The loss of QB Mike Kafka cannot be understated. A run-first guy morphed into one of the conference's most dangerous passing threats. Can Fitz work miracles two years in a row with Dan Persa taking over? They also lose their two best receivers, and all-conference end Corey Wooten.
Outlook:
If Kafka was coming back, they'd be pushing for a top five conference finish again, but without him, I have to knock the Wildcats down a few spots. The schedule almost guarantees them six wins, but anything beyond that will be tough considering the depth of the Big Ten. Then again, I doubted them last year and look what happened.

6. Michigan State Spartans (2009 record: 6-7 Big Ten: 4-4)
Returning: 7 on offense, 8 on defense
Schedule:
Non-con: W.Mich, FlaAtl, Notre Dame, N.Colorado
B10 miss: Indiana, Penn St.
Roadies: Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State

Reason(s) for Hope:
15 starters return, including Big Ten DPOY LB Greg Jones, who should win that award again in 2010. They also return their top 2 QB's and RB's, and including Jones get six of their starting front seven back from an excellent run defense.
Reason(s) for Concern:
Who is going to catch the ball, and who is going to stop the other team from catching it? Senior wideout Blair White went from walk-on to 1st-team Big Ten, and outside of Eric Decker, no receiver will be missed more by his team. The defensive secondary was torched on a regular basis, and Mark Dantonio's going to need to work some miracles back there if the Spartans have any hope of a top four finish. The Big Ten schedule also isn't kind to Sparty, as they miss Indiana (the one gimme win) and have four very, very tough roadies.
Outlook:
Dantonio's going to have to do his best coaching job yet to take another step forward in 2010. They were the preseason darlings of 2009 as the media predicted them to finish third, but they fell well short of that. This year, somewhere between 5-7 looks about right considering what they have to replace and what the schedule holds. Maybe replacing White won't be so difficult, and getting Jones back was a coup, but too bad he can't play safety and corner.

Part II tomorrow. Or maybe Wednesday, depending upon when the Fisch departure becomes official.