2010 Big Ten preview Part II

No word yet on who the new OC is going to be (definitely won't be Sandy or Seth Cohen or Ryan Atwood...anyone? Anyone for an OC reference? No?), so let's get this whole way too early (and way too long) 2010 Big Ten preview wrapped up. Here then, is the top 5, as I see it today. Oh, and go Vikes!!!!

5. Purdue Boilermakers (2009 record: 5-7 Big Ten: 4-4)
Returning: 6 on offense, 5 on defense
Non-con: @Notre Dame, W.Ill, Ball St, Toledo
B10 miss: Iowa and Penn State. No really.
Roadies: Northwestern, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan St

Reason(s) for Hope:
Their biggest reason for Hope is head coach Danny Hope. A program that had started to slide at the end of Joe Tiller's tenure, Hope started turning things around in West Lafayette far faster than I thought possible. The Boilermakers played hard on the field, and Hope hit the recruiting trail hard off it, especially in Florida, where he's already made inroads. The offense loses five starters, but returns top rusher Ralph Bolden and Big Ten receptions leader Keith Smith. They also have two quality options at quarterback with Caleb Terbush and U of Miami transfer, and former high school All-American, Robert Marve. Another reason for Hope? Have you seen the schedule? Did you notice they do not play Iowa or Penn State? They also don't have to play Oregon this year.
Reason(s) for Concern:
Losing three of five starting offensive linemen and their entire back seven on defense. The defense wasn't very good last year anyway, so perhaps all the speed Hope has been recruiting can step in and improve a unit that finished 9th in scoring defense and 7th in total defense in the conference.
Outlook:
This is definitely a bullish prediction, and one that will probably change before the season begins, but follow my logic here (or perhaps complete lack thereof): the 2009 version went 4-4 in the Big Ten, lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame in the final seconds because Danny Hope made a rookie mistake, lost by two ON THE ROAD to eventual PAC 10 champ Oregon, lost to Northwestern because after jumping out to a 21-3 lead they turned the ball over on six of their last eight possessions, and lost to Michigan State by 3. Sure, everyone can play the "yeah but" game and say how good their season could have been. I only bring this up to say Purdue was better than a five win team in 2009, and I expect them to be better in 2010 with their returning starters and better recruits. Remove Oregon from their non-conference schedule, and once again they don't have to play Penn State or Iowa, two of the four best teams in the conference. While Danny Hope could hit a sophomore slump, call me a believer, and I see every reason this team could and should win four or five Big Ten games again and finish 5th in the conference.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions (2009 record: 11-2 Big Ten: 6-2)
Returning: 7 on offense, 4 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: Youngstown St, @ Alabama, Kent St, Temple
B10 Miss: Purdue and Wisconsin
Roadies: Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana

Reason(s) for Hope:
Evan Royster chose not to go to the NFL, and his return, along with Stephfon Green, gives the Nittany Lions the best one-two punch at running back in the Big Ten. The JoePa's also get their top three wide receivers back in Derek Moye, Graham Zug and Chaz Powell, and most of their offensive line. Defensive end Jack Crawford could be the next great Nittan Lion defender and a probably first round pick.
Reason(s) for Concern:
You mean other than losing QB Daryll Clark, the best QB in the Big Ten the past two years? Or losing their trio of stud linebackers in Josh Hull, Navarro Bowman and Sean Lee? Or how about 1st team all-Big Ten DT Jared Odrick? Or what about road games against defending national champ Alabama (guess we can stop making fun of Penn State's Glen Mason-esque non-conference scheduling), and the two top teams in the conference in Ohio State and Iowa? Besides all of that, you mean?
Outlook:
I don't think you can ever say Penn State is having a rebuilding year, but I'm hard pressed to believe they can be as good as they were last year. Clark is by far the biggest loss for any team in the conference, and while Kevin Newsome could be a good QB, he threw all of 11 passes last year, so it's anybody's guess. Penn State has recruiting extremely well, so perhaps it'll be a piece of cake to replace all of those linebackers and Odrick, but that's still asking a lot. The 2010 team will have less experience than 2009 against a tougher schedule. They're not going to be awful, but they won't be in the hunt for the Big Ten title or a BCS bowl either.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (2009 record: 10-3 Big Ten: 5-3)
Returning: 10 on offense, five on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: @UNLV, San Jose St, Arizona St, Austin Peay, the UW school for the blind, the all-girls school of Madison, Waukasha Jr. high school, Madison Pop Warner Bears
B10 Miss: Illinois and Penn State
Roadies: Michigan St, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan

Reason(s) for Hope:
The only offensive starter who doesn't come back is TE Garrett Graham, and as good as he was (All-Big Ten), Lance Kendricks should fill in just fine. Everybody else from the conference's offensive leader in scoring (31.8 pts per game), total offense (416.9 yds per game), rushing (203.8 ypg and 33 TDs) and time of possession (33:54) returns, including Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year John Clay. Defensively B10 Rookie of the Year LB Chris Borland headlines five returning starters, including All-conference safety Jay Valai. Oh and have you looked at that schedule? It's not UW's fault Arizona St has gone in the tank (I'm sure when they scheduled the Sun Devils series a few years that they were a middle-of-the-pack Pac 10 team), but you can pretty much guarantee four non-conny wins right now. They skip Penn State, and get Ohio State and those tricky, tricky Northwestern Wildcats at home.
Reason(s) for Concern:
They lose a ton on defense, including all-conference end and pass-rushing force O'Brien Schofield (24.5 TFL and 12 sacks. Good lord). His production will not be replaced by one guy, and they lose some other key pieces. The Badgers are going to need some new guys to step up in a big, big way on defense. The Big Ten road schedule is also tough, as Iowa looms (and will be one of the biggest conference games of the year), Michigan, especially at the Big House, always seems to be a challenge for Bucky Badger no matter how bad Michigan is, and Spartan Stadium is not an easy place to play these days. There's also the question of Bret Bielma: the pressure is on and expectations are high. Does he wilt in the spotlight or prove he's a worthy successor to Barry Alvarez? He's definitely a question mark at this point.
Outlook:
Despite the Badgers big losses on defense, their offense will not only be good, but the style they play will keep their defense off the field for long stretches with their smash-mouth, clock chewing running game. They also have the four NC cupcakes to get the defense ready for conference play. On paper, they're a better team than Iowa heading into 2010, but I couldn't bump them ahead of the Hawkeyes because Ferentz has proven more than Bielma (at least thus far), and Sconnie has to travel to Iowa City this year.

2. Iowa Hawkeyes (2009 record: 11-2 Big Ten: 6-2)
Returning: 6 on offense, 8 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: E Illinois, Iowa St, @ Arizona, Ball St
B10 Miss: Illinois and Purdue
Roadies: Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota

Reason(s) for Hope:
Eight starters return from one of the best defenses in the Big Ten, and DE Adrian Clayborn's decision to return for his senior season cannot be overstated. Ricky Stanzi should be healthy and ready to go, and if he struggles, James Vandenberg proved he's more than capable of running the offense. The Hawks also get their top runners back, including Jewel Hampton, who if completely healthy from a knee injury could be a force, and their top two wide receivers. They also get their three toughest Big Ten opponents at home, as Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State all have to come to Iowa City this year.
Reason(s) for Concern:
More than Iowa fans want to admit. I know Iowa always have good o-linemen, but losing four of five starters has to be a concern, as is all-conference TE Tony Moeaki, who was a big part of the offense. Defensively they do return a ton and getting Clayborn back was key, but their losses are nonetheless big. CB Amari Spievey was one of the conference's best and will not be easily replaced. Neither will all-Big 10 LB's Pat Angerer and AJ Edds.
Outlook:
As I said, I like Wisconsin better on paper, but that's the thing about Iowa: they always seem to be better than they're supposed to be. They never have highly ranked recruiting classes but keep winning games and cranking out NFL players. They weren't very good offensively last year (10th in the Big Ten in both scoring and total offense), but as always, they did just enough to win. Bottom line, I give them the nod because of Ferentz, because of cardiac Stanzi, and because all of their three toughest games are at home.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (2009 record: 11-2 Big Ten: 7-1)
Returning: 9 on offense, 7 on defense
SCHEDULE:
Non-con: Marshall, Miami, Ohio, E.Michigan
B10 Miss: Michigan St and Northwestern
Roadies: Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

Reason(s) for Hope:
It's not that Ohio State is favored to win at least a share of its 7th straight Big Ten title in 2010, it's that nobody else is really in the conversation right now. Sure Iowa and Wisconsin could be good, but these Buckeyes get 16 starters back from a team that walloped Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and should start the season in everybody's national top 3. Outside of Alabama and perhaps Boise State, nobody in the country returns more talent, and more proven talent, than the Buckeyes (to the people in Eugene- you have a great team that will be ranked in the preseason top 4, but you got thumped). Terrelle Pryor could finally live up the hype. Devier Posey looks like a star. A returning offensive line finally played like an Ohio State offensive line is supposed to. Cameron Heyward and Ross Homan could be All-Americans (Heyward could be a top 10 pick). Simply put, this could be the best team head coach Jim Tressell has had, and that includes a national title winner, two runners-up, and those teams that won six straight conference titles.
Reason(s) for Concern:
It's getting ridiculous in Columbus to have worries about anything other than whether the Buckeyes can win the national title. Seriously, that's about the only concern Buckeye fans probably have right now. Sure they lost some good defensive players, but keep in mind they lost NINE defensive starters from their very impressive 2008 team, and all the 2009 group did was put up better numbers. So why should we expect anything less in 2010? Personally, my only concern is Jim Tressel: was the Oregon game a sign of things to come or an abberation? Remember in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl Terrelle Pryor looked like the second coming of Vince Young and Jesus in the loss to Texas, prompting the media to tab Pryor as the preseason player of the year. Of course we know what happened, as for most of last season Pryor and the offense struggled as Tressell kept things so conservative it looked like it belonged on Fox News. Finally, after months and months of fans wailing and gnashing teeth for him to open up the offense and set Pryor free, he did, and the kid destroyed a really good Oregon team. You would THINK Tressell watches that tape and understands that letting Pryor loose is the way to go, but then again, we thought that last year and it took him until the bowl game to figure it out. I know, the other 10 teams in the conference would kill for this to their big concern, but so it goes in Columbus.
Outlook:
Does Tressell open it up a bit or go back to his button-down sweater vest bore-you-to-death offensive style? With that defense, will it really matter until the national championship game? Miami isn't USC, but is still a top 15 team with a ton of speed so it'll be a good early season test for the Buckeyes. They get Penn State at home, but I think their two toughest games will be at Wisconsin and at Iowa. It's national title game or bust for the 2010 Buckeyes, and anything less will be a disappointment. 10 other Big Ten schools would love to have that problem.