Wednesday, November 18, 2009

GFB Top 25: Week 12

All season long I've been against Boise State getting into a BCS game because while they did soundly beat a pretty good Oregon team in the first game of the year, they haven't beaten anyone one else worth a darn since. Well, looks like it's not going to matter what I think, as suddenly Boise has a real shot at playing in a BCS bowl even when TCU gets picked ahead of them as the Non-BCS conference qualifier. Thanks to the upsets of USC and Miami, the PAC 10, ACC, and Big East are now guaranteed to only fill one BCS bowl slot, regardless of who their champion is.

So six slots are automatically filled with the champs of the SEC (Florida or Bama), Big Ten (Ohio State), Big 12 (I realize it's possible that Texas could lose before the national title game, but the odds are about a zillion-to-one. Maybe even a bazillion-to-one), ACC (if Georia Tech doesn't win the ACC, they're not getting in with two losses because they just don't travel well enough), Big East (it's either going to be undefeated Cincy or one-loss Pittsburgh. Not both), and the Pac 10 (Oregon would have to lose a third time to open the door for a wild tie-breaker scenario, and with the way things have gone in that conference, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens. If it does, it still means only one Pac 10 team is going to the BCS because all the best teams would have at least 3 losses). TCU takes the seventh spot, and the Florida/Bama loser takes the eighth, leaving two spots remaining for five teams: Boise, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin (assuming all win out, of course). The Big Ten is absolutely, positively guaranteed a slot as long as at least one of the three aforementioned teams win, as all three travel extremely well. If Oklahoma State wins out (they finish home to Colorado and at Oklahoma), they're likely, but not guaranteed, to get picked up by the Fiesta to replace Texas, as the Big 12 rep in that game, which would probably knock Boise out of contention, because as nice a story as Boise would be, the bowls care first about filling their stadium, and Iowa, Penn State, or Wisconsin all will travel much, much better than the Broncos.

While Boise State will cry foul, I just don't see how they have a case. Iowa's non-conny wasn't great, but at least they played two BCS conference schools in their annual game with Iowa State, and a win over Arizona, which looks pretty good now.

Oklahoma State went after scheduling Georgia and Houston- sure the Georgia win doesn't look like much now, but remember the Dawgs were ranked 13th when they played to open the year.

Boise gets dinged for playing in the weak WAC, and they're having much publicized problems getting any decent teams to play them at home. My response? You're Boise. Why would anyone be crazy enough to play up there after what happened to Oregon? You guys are your own worst enemy- you have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and none of the Big Boys are forced to play you. Sure it's yellow and hollow, but nobody is going to make the trek to Boise, so you might as well suck it up and keep scheduling tough road games, or neutral site stuff like they're doing with Virginia Tech next year. Oh, and also hope the Mountain West accepts you so your conference strength-of-schedule improves.

The one team they DO have a gripe about is Penn State, who if they were Illinois Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Purdue, or Indiana and had played the Nittany Lion's schedule with the same results would be lucky to be in the top 25, let alone in the top 14 and BCS eligible. Penn State had a disgraceful non-con schedule, and also did not have to play Wisconsin this year, so despite crapping the bed in their only two tough games against Iowa and Ohio State- BOTH AT HOME!!!!!!!!!!!- because Penn State is Penn State they're rewarded because people just assume they're good. And this also sets a horrible precident for the other Big Boys that if you schedule four cupcakes, you're going to get rewarded for you because the coaches poll, which counts for a ridiculous 1/3 of the vote, is going to reward you because you're a big name and they don't care who you've played, just how many games you win. Pathetic.

So as much as don't like Boise going despite playing one good team all year, unlike Penn State at least they beat that one good team. So now I'm hoping Okie State loses somewhere along the way so we can get the Broncos in. But it won't happen this week for sure, as there's only one matchup of top 25 teams as Cal plays Stanford, so don't expect much of change in the BCS rankings from this week to the next.

GFB Top 25
1 Florida 10-0
2 Alabama 10-0
3 Texas 10-0
4 TCU 10-0
5 Cincinnati 10-0
6 Georgia Tech 10-1
7 Boise State 10-0
8 LSU 8-2
9 Oregon 8-2
10 Ohio State 9-2
11 Iowa 9-2
12 Wisconsin 8-2
13 Pittsburgh 9-1
14 Virginia Tech 7-3
15 Clemson 7-3
16 Miami (FL) 7-3
17 Stanford 7-3
18 USC 7-3
19 Oklahoma State 8-2
20 Penn State 9-2
21 Oregon State 7-3
22 Nebraska 7-3
23 Arizona 7-3
24 North Carolina 7-3
25 BYU 8-2

Dropped out: #21 Houston #24 Utah

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